As the Champions League group stage nears its conclusion, the stakes are high for the 36 participating teams. With two matchdays remaining, several clubs are on the verge of securing qualification, while others are at risk of elimination. Here’s an overview of the scenarios, including the fortunes of the four French representatives.
Teams poised to secure top 8 spots
Liverpool, sitting at the top of the standings, has already guaranteed its place in the top 8. FC Barcelona can join them this week with a victory against Benfica. Meanwhile, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter Milan, Brest, and Lille are also eyeing top-8 spots, though their chances depend on a complex series of results involving teams like Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and Atlético Madrid faltering. While unlikely, a series of favorable outcomes could see these teams secure direct round-of-16 qualification.
Teams close to qualification
While top-8 qualification may be challenging, several teams are well-placed to secure a spot in the top 24 and continue in the competition. Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter Milan, Brest, and Lille need just a draw—or even a loss in some cases—to advance, provided certain other teams stumble. For clubs like Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid, and AC Milan, a win this week would confirm their progression.
Additionally, teams like Benfica, AS Monaco, Sporting CP, Feyenoord, and Club Brugge could qualify with victories, provided others in the lower rankings falter. However, the scenarios for Paris Saint-Germain and Stuttgart are more precarious. Losses combined with favorable outcomes for rivals could spell the end of their campaigns.
Teams at risk of elimination
Three teams—Young Boys Bern, Slovan Bratislava, and RB Leipzig—are already eliminated, unable to reach the top 24. Bologna, with just two points, faces near-certain elimination unless they pull off a win against Dortmund and other results align perfectly. Similarly, teams with three points—Salzburg, Red Star Belgrade, Girona, and Sturm Graz—need nothing short of victory and significant help from other results to maintain their slim hopes.
For Shakhtar Donetsk and Sparta Prague, ranked 27th and 28th, their matches against Brest and Inter Milan respectively are do-or-die affairs. Even Paris Saint-Germain and Stuttgart could face elimination with losses, though a highly improbable set of circumstances would need to align for this to happen.
Fate of the French teams
Among the French clubs, Brest is best placed, currently seventh and with strong chances to qualify even without a win against Shakhtar Donetsk. Lille, in eighth place, shares a similar outlook but faces a tough challenge against Liverpool.
Monaco, ranked 16th, can qualify with a draw or a victory against Aston Villa, which would also keep their top-8 hopes alive. PSG, however, faces the most challenging situation. A loss to Manchester City could spell elimination if rivals capitalize, while a win would not only secure their place in the top 24 but also leapfrog their English opponents.
The coming matchdays promise high drama as teams fight for survival and glory in Europe’s premier competition.
