Prince Adewole Adebayo was presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2023 general election.
In this interview, he speaks on President Bola Tinubu’s administration, expectations of Nigerians in 2025 and why the 2025 budget can’t solve current economic challenges, among other issues, ANAYO EZUGWU writes
What are your expectations for Nigeria as a citizen?
My expectations as a citizen are that the democracy we have will continue, which will allow us to ventilate our ideas, and that the government of the day will recognize the extraordinary cooperation that Nigerians have given to the Tinubu administration.
The government should now turn a new leaf and try to do something immediately to relieve the excruciating pain that people are going through.
The government must realize that it does not have eternal life. The government is approaching its midterm, and anything it wants to do for Nigerians has already consumed almost half its time.
This year, they must address insecurity. They must also address the issue of poverty, factor price fluctuation and employment. People who are desperately poor should be able to care for themselves if allowed to earn a living by working.
The infrastructure that the government is supposed to build to aid productivity must be built, and the political class should think less of themselves and more of the people.
The amount of money included in the budget for maintaining people in high places must be reviewed downwards, and these resources should be deployed appropriately in line with Chapter 2 of the Constitution; the welfare of the people. We should also invest in agriculture to make food cheaper for the people.
The major challenge facing Nigerians right now, apart from insecurity, is hunger, which arises from inflation and the high prices of goods and services, especially food. It’s not a case of people not knowing how to manage; there’s no more room for Nigerians to stretch tiny budgets and salaries.
The government must address that. The government must also address the cost of electricity, other services, education, and health care. If the government can do this, then we can hope that the next government will do far better.
Right now, their budget is called a budget of restoration, so what they are doing is trying to restore and at least give people back a bit of the comfort they once enjoyed but lost due to the government’s fiscal and monetary policies.
How would you appraise the performance of Tinubu government’s performance in the outgone year, and on a scale of 100 per cent, how would you grade the administration? It will be poor attempts, and it will be missed opportunities. And if I’m to tell them, there’s a lot of room for improvement.
On grading, I will grade it 20 per cent or maybe 22 per cent. And if you have a student who scores 22 per cent, you know what it means. To be fair to them, I will give them 22 per cent because in some areas, they made attempts, while in others, they just threw away the opportunities.
That’s how I measure it, by how much of the opportunities for growth and development they have taken. It was even noticed that the Speaker of the House of Representatives when the President addressed the joint session of the National Assembly, remarked that the 2024 budget had not been fully implemented.
You will also see that the 2024 budget has now been extended by the National Assembly to almost the middle of this year. So, they haven’t taken opportunities. This is not about a personal measurement; it’s an objective metric of how far they have dealt with the issues.
You will see the implications in areas such as employment generation; they haven’t even reduced unemployment by 22 per cent. If you look at inflation, they’ve worsened it. If you look at the poverty index, they’ve worsened it. So, the measurement is not just a political one; it’s a measurement based on data coming from within their government.
Does it mean that the President has good intentions but his approach is wrong?
There are three errors. The first error is that he wanted to do fiscal management, which is necessary in government. He wanted to do fiscal reform, which means saying, I don’t like the idea that the government is spending so much money on certain things
President Tinubu needs to focus on his programme, not just flying to Dubai today, Abu Dhabi tomorrow. He also needs a coordinated economic plan
like fuel subsidy, and trying to defend the Naira by throwing money at it. That was causing a significant deficit in government financing, which in turn created a monetary problem. So, what did he do? He removed the subsidy in a way that caused factor costs to rise, inflation to spiral, and further problems for the Central Bank in managing inflation and foreign exchange.
At the same time, he is still running a deficit anyway. So, you see the problem; the reform caused ripples in the larger economy, but the original issue he wanted to solve remains unresolved.
All the money saved in the name of subsidy removal has disappeared. He is still borrowing more. The money diverted from subsidies has not increased employment in the economy. There’s no evidence to say that since they came into office, employment numbers have improved.
That’s why I said the approach he took was wrong. If you examine the system he wants to run, a neoliberal system, which he has the right to pursue because it’s what he campaigned on, the problem lies in how he has set up his economic team.
There’s no sign they are proactive. They are only reacting to the consequences of earlier actions, always defending and perpetually behind. The economic team is not nimble or sharp enough.
Even if he chooses not to go outside his party to find people for the economic team, the APC has enough talent within its ranks. He hasn’t even utilized the best people within the party. In a few cases where he got the appointments right, you can see the difference. Here’s an example that proves the excuse of what I met on the ground is not valid. Take Nyesom Wike, for instance.
He doesn’t go around saying, I met the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with no streetlights, bad roads. He goes straight to work, and you can see the results. Look at the Minister of Interior. He’s not lamenting about millions of passport backlogs or other inherited challenges.
He’s addressing them. But every time you see President Tinubu on TV, he’s in the FCT opening one road or at the Ministry of Interior unveiling one technological system or the other. Now, imagine if that same proactive approach was applied to the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy or Ministry of Agriculture.
Realistically, if you had become president in 2023, did you imagine that this was the quantum of challenges you would have met?
I was expecting worse. If you look at President Muhammadu Buhari’s years in office, they were years of suspense, where the country went into a coma and occasionally came out to do something.
This may have been because the president was ill at some point. In the end, they had a mismanaged Central Bank that allowed them to mismanage their budget and borrow unnecessarily.
They also mismanaged the currency and everything else. So, I knew that was the situation. But when you come in, you do not worsen the case. You have to raise all the indices necessary to start normalization. The problem, if I were to blame President Tinubu, is that he did not stabilize the economy.
When he came in, his job was to stabilize the economy just like stabilizing a patient in the hospital. Then you start treatment. I’ve seen some of the speeches he has made. He now wants to stabilize, but he has already applied the wrong medicines. So, the patient is now in a very terrible state.
President Tinubu needs focus and have his programme, not just flying to Dubai today, Abu Dhabi tomorrow. He also needs a coordinated economic plan. He should start by ensuring that the 2025 budget, which I think is poorly written and poorly articulated, is implemented properly.
He should take a step back, finish the 2024 budget, which they mismanaged, strongly and then begin the 2025 budget with a clear plan to pin things down and create stability. For example, if they can keep the Naira from fluctuating for 120 days, I would know they are serious.
It seems they weren’t very ambitious with their projections for the Naira-to-Dollar rate, pegging it at N1,500 in the 2025 budget. Do you think this shows a lack of ambition or belief that things could improve beyond the current state?
When I look at that, I start thinking like a Scotsman. I would give them the Scottish double entry, meaning that if they manage it well, they can balance the middle.
Do you know why? If the rates are unrealistically low, as some people believe, it means that in managing the financial budget, they will have to spend more Naira to meet the numbers. On the other hand, if they increase the sale of crude oil and other foreign receipts, they will have additional money.
For example, there could be an excess crude account for the first time. If they manage solid minerals well, they could even create an excess solid minerals account. They’ll have these arbitrage excesses. For instance, they might project earning $150 million from selling one million barrels of crude oil, but end up earning $160 million instead.
These little things could help even out and finance the budget. But the key issue is this: When you implement a budget, it must have a real impact on the streets. Pay your debts on time because they still have many unpaid debts.
They still rely on treasury bills, which they use under court orders to slow down their administrative problems. When I spoke with manufacturers and others, they mentioned the lag time – T plus X – when trying to buy foreign exchange. Sometimes, the X is more than one month, even up to two months. For example, you pay for forex on February 1, but don’t get it until April.
They need to bridge that gap. They also need to pay contractors on time. If I were the President, I’d tell my Minister of Finance that anyone who does a contract for the government must be paid within 21 days.
The implication of this is that it will restore the gilt-edged status of government contracts. In the past, someone with a Federal Government contract could go to a bank, borrow money without collateral, and the bank would trust that government will pay. Now, contractors go years without being paid. They need to fix that.
The government must address these behavioural issues within the business community. Once that’s balanced, they can focus on foreign investments. But first, they must handle the housekeeping required to make that happen.
Instead of focusing solely on foreign direct investment, shouldn’t the government prioritize energizing local economies and working with state governments to set up industries that could start producing within 18 to 20 months?
It’s not only possible, it’s mandatory. However, the government isn’t thinking in those terms. For international investment, it takes about six years of stability to attract foreign direct investment.
Foreign portfolio investors, on the other hand, may enter if they see opportunities for quick profit, such as undervalued stocks or favourable exchange rates.
To attract foreign direct investment, President Tinubu’s government needs six years of stable fiscal, monetary, trade, and structural reforms. With only two years remaining, that’s a challenge.
In the SDP, we planned to ensure government revenue has no leakage, stabilize inflation to single digits, and create an environment where the Naira is as dependable as any foreign currency. This will encourage people to retain wealth in Naira, lower factor prices, generate jobs, and improve infrastructure to reduce costs for everyone.
However, the government’s current handling of the foreign exchange policy has led to a decrease in the value of the Naira, despite increasing the budget from N35 trillion to N47.9 trillion, which has led to a $28 billion shortfall.
Given the possibility of pushing the budget to about N50 trillion with constituency projects, while the previous budget was lower in figure, is the 2025 budget lower in value?
he budget is $5 billion dollars lower, down from $33 billion dollars last year to $28 billion dollars. Despite borrowing, including N15 trillion for debt financing, they have managed better than the Buhari administration by avoiding excessive ways and means.
While they have become more active in the bond market, borrowing in foreign exchange will still require future repayment.
What do you mean when you say you are coming?
The debt outlives the administration. So, we are hoping that the SDP is going to take over from the Tinubu government.
That’s why we are working. That’s why we are making sure that whatever advice we give to them now is in their self-interest because we don’t want the whole city to be damaged.
There have been reports that Northern elites are meeting with some Southern leaders and making plans for the 2027 elections. Is it true that there are efforts to take out the Tinubu government?
Of course, there are plans. We intend to ensure they are stable, complete their four years, and then step aside. That’s the core of the conversation.
The SDP’s approach is to have a national consensus on how to run the economy, security, growth, and development, not just a conspiracy focused on removing one person.
We intend to ensure they are stable, complete their four years, and then step aside… The SDP’s approach is to have a national consensus on how to run the economy, not just a conspiracy focused on removing one person
In the past, we’ve had situations where it was about forcing someone out, like with Jonathan. We don’t want that. What we want now is to have a consensus on how the government is performing and what needs to be done once it’s time for a change in leadership.
The most important role of the SDP is to present our manifesto to all those in politics who believe change is necessary. This change must be based on principles, manifestos, programmes, and plans, not personalities.
So, you don’t hope that things could get better to the point that if the Tinubu government performs, it can be retained. You don’t see that happening?
If you want me to cut one of my fingers as a donation for them to perform, I will do it. I don’t mind. I want them to perform. But their performance is already halfway. The purpose of my coming here now is to give them some ideas for their 2025 budget.
It’s not my budget, but we want them to perform because we want our people to live well. I drove to your office on a road maintained by Wike, who is working for APC. I’m not against that, but I don’t see how they can give us the progress and speed we need beyond this administration. They can’t provide that. We need to bring a better government than we have now.
But while we’re helping them patch things up, we also need to bring a stronger SDP government that can help, based on principles. Look at Chapter 2 of the Constitution, the National Development Plan, and the talent the country has. Our people have the right not to live in insecurity, not to live in poverty.
They have the right to see the government account for its revenue and ensure that those responsible in government are doing their jobs. So, if President Tinubu sees what we are doing, ups his game, makes his work more serious, and becomes more accessible to Nigerians, not just giving a once-a-year interview, then we become more competitive. We will still defeat them.
So, you think he needs to talk more to Nigerians?
He needs to communicate. It’s not just about doing the job; communication is part of the requirement. You know, as they say in aviation, you have to aviate, navigate, and communicate.
You can’t say, ‘I’m a pilot, I’m flying, and the control tower is talking to you,’ and then say, ‘no, I’m busy, I’m navigating.’ That’s not good airmanship. Similarly, in government, you can’t say, ‘I am busy governing, I can’t talk to you.’ It’s not done.
So, he has not done well in terms of communication. Does he need to do more?
Yes, and I understand why they’re not talking. They know that if they speak, we’ll respond, and people can compare what they say with what we say. So, they refuse to engage. But eventually, they will have to talk. They’ve done one budget, and now they’re working on a second, and we can see that they’re not meeting their targets.
Check the statistics from their bureau, they’re not doing well. I’m monitoring their plans. They want to rebase the economy and adjust the inflation database, and I’m watching them closely. Even if they meet their objectives, my concern with the 2025 budget is that the objective is not good enough.
If you’re paying high fees for your child’s education, and the child says, ‘this year, I’ll make sure I get D’s in all my subjects and no F’s,’ you wouldn’t be satisfied. You’d want them to aim for A’s, or at least a few B’s. The 2025 budget they’ve set is aiming for a D and some doubt they’ll even achieve that. The country needs at least a B+.
So, what is the Tinubu administration telling the National Assembly? Can the 2025 budget offer hope to Nigerians, and what should they expect? We’ve been analysing the 2025 budget, the hopes for the year, and what we can expect under this administration.
Looking at the 49.7 trillion Naira 2025 budget, including the breakdowns on crude oil production, exchange rates, and revenue projections, what stands out to you the most?
Do you think this is the best budget the government could have presented to the National Assembly? The positive aspect I see is that they managed to avoid over-reliance on ways and means.
However, there are several concerns. First, it is unconstitutional to ask journalists or the public to leave appropriation sessions.
According to the Constitution, matters involving money must go to the committee of the whole House and should be public. Second, the governing mentality is concerning.
The Minister of National Planning refers to states and local governments as ‘sub-nationals,’ a term the International Monetary Fund (IMF) uses, rather than addressing them as per our constitution, where revenue belongs to the states and local governments.
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