As Nigeria prepares to rebase its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stakeholders in the economy are weighing its implications, particularly for the capital market, Kelechukwu Mgboji writes
While GDP rebasing is a routine statistical exercise, experts believe it carries significant signaling potential, capable of influencing foreign investment, boosting the domestic capital market, and recalibrating perceptions of the nation’s economic structure.
The last GDP rebasing in 2014, which shifted the base year from 1990 to 2010, revealed an almost 89 per cent increase in Nigeria’s economic size.
The upcoming rebasing, which will adjust the base year to 2019, is expected to reflect new sectors and growth areas, painting a more accurate picture of the country’s economic landscape.
Bigger economy, limited impact
Teslim Shitta-Bay, an analyst at Proshare, explained that rebasing primarily involved recalibrating GDP figures and has no direct impact on economic fundamentals.
“Rebasing signals a larger economy, which could attract foreign investors. However, it doesn’t necessarily mean that manufacturers or other sectors will perform better immediately,” he said.
Shitta-Bay emphasised that the real benefit was in the perception of Nigeria as an investment destination. “Foreign investors doing their calculations may now see Nigeria as a bigger economy, which could increase capital inflows into key sectors like manufacturing and infrastructure,” he added.
Capital market and public assets
For Nigeria’s capital market, the rebasing exercise provides an opportunity to align economic representation with actionable reforms.
Shitta-Bay suggested that the government should leverage this moment to list idle public assets on the stock exchange. “Why is the Federal Government still the owner of national stadium or other idle assets?” he questioned.
“Selling a portion of these assets, as Saudi Arabia did with Saudi Aramco, could generate revenue, attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and strengthen the capital market,” he added.
Such listings could pave the way for private-sector investment in infrastructure, enabling projects like transforming stadiums into world-class event centers, as seen in Dubai or London.
This, he argued, would not only reinforce GDP growth but also unlock value in underutilised national assets.
Also commenting, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Cowry Asset Management Limited, identified tax holidays, differentiated tax rates for companies seeking to list on the market for the first five years, and a differential dividend tax for listed companies to incentivise more companies across sectors of the economy to list in the capital market.
Mr. Chukwu also stressed the need for formalising activities in the agriculture and trade sectors, which will see more companies listed and boost the market to GDP size.
He said: “Formalising key sectors of the economy will translate to key listings in the Nigerian stock market. South Africa is an example of how critical sectors of the economy are represented in the market, reflecting the linkage between the capital market and the economy.
Nigeria must prioritise the formalisation of businesses to set the pace for more listings across the various platforms of the capital market.”
Looking at Nigeria’s plan to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030 and the role of the capital market, he tasked the government with aligning its medium-term expenditure framework and other fiscal plans with the overarching economic plan to grow the economy.
He called for strategic policy steps to create economic corridors to attract targeted capital market funding in areas like tourism and hospitality, infrastructure (rail and highways), and other critical sectors with multiplier socio-economic effects.
He cited the example of the telecommunications industry liberalisation in 2001, which came with strong leadership and unlocked the creative industry, deepened the financial services industry, unleashed the fintech industry and had a massive impact on other segments of the services sector.
By leveraging this moment to implement strategic reforms, Nigeria could not only redefine its economic narrative but also create a more robust foundation for sustainable growth
On the listing of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), using the example of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), he called for its unbundling into Upstream, Downstream, and Gas segments before listing to unlock the value of the various subsidiaries to the market and economy.
For 2025, the analyst was optimistic that the market will maintain growth while sectors like the lifestyle economy will continue to grow.
Government intentional policies and incentives through concessions and corridors could result in significant investments in infrastructure across the country.
Enhanced data
Dr. Muda Yusuf, the convener of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), highlighted the analytical and strategic advantages of GDP rebasing.
“Rebasing will provide more current and detailed data, showing new sectors and their contributions to the economy,” he said.
This updated data can guide investors, improve macroeconomic analysis, and enhance business strategy formulation.
The immediate past Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) noted that having a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economic structure would improve the perception of the country’s investment potential, particularly in emerging sectors.
Rebasing
Opinions vary on whether rebasing alone will drive foreign investment into the capital market. Tajudeen Olanrewaju, Managing Director of Wyoming Securities Ltd, noted that while rebasing may bring clarity to sectoral contributions, it is unlikely to change investor sentiment significantly.
“Investors are drawn to economies that are fundamentally attractive, not just ones with updated GDP figures,” he said.
However, Yusuf argued that a higher nominal GDP and the inclusion of previously unaccounted-for sectors could indirectly boost FDI. “It’s not just about numbers.
A bigger GDP and new opportunities can signal a thriving economy to long-term investors,” he explained.
Policy imperatives
While rebasing is expected to bolster Nigeria’s economic image, experts stress that structural reforms are essential to translate these perceptions into tangible benefits.
Policies that attract FDI, foster public-private partnerships, and deepen the capital market are critical. Shitta-Bay urged the government to follow the telecom sector’s example from 2001, when licensing reforms attracted billions in investment without direct public spending.
“Nigeria needs to replicate such successes by opening up public assets for private investment and stock market listings,” he said.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s GDP rebasing, while a technical exercise, carries substantial symbolic weight. It has the potential to enhance investor confidence, attract capital inflows, and reveal new economic opportunities.
However, the real impact will depend on complementary policies that align the rebased GDP with actionable reforms in the capital market and broader economy.
By leveraging this moment to implement strategic reforms, Nigeria could not only redefine its economic narrative but also create a more robust foundation for sustainable growth.
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