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After years of propping up Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad with a combination of military and mercenary might, Russia ultimately could not protect him from a rebel offensive that quickly toppled the government in December.
While the downfall of Assad has worldwide geopolitical implications, it reverberated particularly strongly in Africa, where Russia is supporting military juntas and autocratic leaders.
“[It] is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote on December 8. “Russia’s inability or decision to not reinforce Assad’s regime as the Syrian opposition offensive made rapid gains throughout the country will also hurt Russia’s credibility as a reliable and effective security partner.”
Long convoys choked Syria’s roads as Russian troops and military assets retreated to their two main posts — Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base. Warships, cargo vessels, fighter jets and transport planes scrambled back to Russia to avoid the chaos, as it became apparent that Russian President Vladimir Putin had backed the losing side in Syria’s long, bloody civil war.
“This will be humiliating for the Kremlin and potentially damaging, too,” Sky News correspondent Ivor Bennett said in a report from Moscow. “After doing so much to keep Assad in power over the past decade they’ve now lost a key strategic ally, which in turn could seriously harm Russia’s regional influence.”
The two main bases served as crucial logistical hubs between Africa and Russia. Experts say it is unclear whether Syria’s new leaders will allow Russian forces to retain them.
“Without a reliable air bridge, Russia’s ability to project power in Africa collapses,” Anas el-Gomati, director of the Libya-based Sadeq Institute, told Bloomberg. “Russia’s entire operational strategy in the Mediterranean and Africa is hanging by a thread.”
The Khmeimim air base was a key stop for military and cargo planes refueling on their way to Africa. According to Rybar, a well-known Russian military blogging channel on Telegram, cargo planes can only reach Libya directly from Russia if they are empty. Rybar said the Kremlin will need “alternative options,” including boosting its presence in Libya and Sudan.
John Foreman, a former British defense attache in Moscow, said that the loss of Russia’s bases in Syria would make it much more difficult to support the estimated 20,000 mercenaries based primarily in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali and Niger.
“Their likely loss is a significant strategic setback for Russia on its southern flank,” he told British newspaper The Telegraph. “Russia lacks permanent bases generally, so both are important, and both had significant investment over the past seven years.”
With Assad now in exile in Moscow, many of Russia’s most important investments in the Middle East and Africa are in jeopardy. But the reputational damage could carry the most weight on the continent. When Assad fled his home just hours before Damascus was overrun on December 8, he and his family were the sole beneficiaries of the same “regime survival package” that Russia touts to military junta rulers in Africa.
Experts say Russia’s failure likely will stick in the minds of its partners in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“The ruling authorities in Mali, the Central African Republic and in other countries that depend on Russian security forces may begin to question whether Moscow has the capacity — or the will — to come to their aid in times of crisis,” Federico Manfredi Firmian, an associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, told The Africa Report.
“The Kremlin’s preoccupation with Ukraine has already limited its ability to act elsewhere. Losing Syria further amplifies doubts about Russia’s ability to deliver on its promises, signaling to current and prospective partners that they might need to look elsewhere for support.”
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