As the NBS prepares to release new rebased GDP/CPI for Nigeria’s economy, Abdulwahab Isa recounts the benefits of the exercise
Eleven years after the last economic rebasing exercise (2014), Nigeria is on track to reevaluate her economy’s true potential for sustainable growth.
In April 2014, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on the order of the Federal Government, announced changes to the way it calculated Gross Domestic Products (GDP).
The format was changed to accurately reflect current prices as of the time, and market structure. In the 2014 economy rebasing exercise, more weight was given to Nollywood and the telecoms (mobile phone services) that had grown in leaps.
As a result, Nigeria’s estimate of its GDP increased by 89 per cent, moving it from Africa’s second biggest economy (after South Africa) to the biggest economy.
Essentially, GDP rebasing is the process of updating the base year used in calculating the country’s GDP. It involves calculating the GDP figures, using current prices and weight, rather than those from an older based year.
It’s an internationally recommended exercise for all the National Statistics Office (NSO) across the globe, to carry out rebasing exercise every five years to reflect changes in economic activities.
Changes
Nigeria’s economy, without doubt, has evolved in different ways since the last rebasing exercise of 2014. In fact, going by stipulated criteria, the exercise ought to have been done six years ago to capture expansions that occurred in various sectors of the economy.
Speaking on development that had taken place in the country’s economy between 2014 and now, a former Chief Executive of National Planning, Mr. Ode Ojowu, said the exercise was long overdue.
Ode spoke late last year at a workshop flagged off by the NBS in preparation for the GDP rebasing exercise. Ojowu recalled that since the last rebasing in 2014, Nigeria had experienced significant structural changes in various sectors.
These, he noted, included rapid growth of technology and digital sectors, such as fintech, ecommerce, and digital services.
“Additionally, the agricultural sector has seen the emergence of new value chains, including agribusiness, processing, commodity exchanges, and export activities, as well as the growth of renewable energy sources like solar power,” he said.
Added to these, he said the entertainment and creative industry witnessed significant growth, with the skit industry, Nollywood, and music production gaining international recognition, while urbanisation and infrastructural development led to an increase in the value of real estate.
He believed rebasing of the CPI and GDP would capture these sectoral shifts. “A rebased GDP will result in changes to the current macroeconomic indicators used by the government to inform policymaking,” he alluded.
Ojowu said further: “For example, in 2013, some financial indicators were lower than in the pre-rebased period, with the private sector credit to GDP dropping from 37.2 (before rebasing) to 19.7 per cent (after rebasing) in 2013 and expanding to 27.2 per cent in 2023.
Broad money supply declined from 35.8 (before rebasing) to 18.9 per cent of GDP (after rebasing) in 2013 and rose to 34.3 per cent of GDP in 2023.
“From the policy perspective, these ‘overnight’ drops looked like a lower private sector credit expansion and constrained financial system development.
Similarly, 2014 rebased GDP lowered the fiscal deficit as a ratio of GDP by half from 2.1 to 1.1, but within a decade the government has rapidly expanded the fiscal deficit to the current level of 5.6 per cent of GDP.
“With the anticipated rise in the size of the GDP when the current rebasing exercise is concluded, we expect a further lower fiscal deficit to GDP ratio.
Will the new fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio be an incentive to the government to ramp up expenditure and slow down the drive to cut down on the high cost of governance?”
Countdown to new GDP, CPI
Counting down to the January ending period set by the NBS to announce rebased GDP, CPI, the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), an octopus in the affairs of Nigeria’s economy, in collaboration with NBS organised public enlightenment engagement on the imperative of a rebased GDP/CPI exercise and its implications on the economy.
Speaking on the imperative of GDP and CPI rebasing, NESG Chief Executive Officer, Dr Tayo Aduloju, used a simple illustration to capture its essence.
Aduloju said: “Economic (GDP) rebasing, in essence, is a recalibration – an exercise with profound significance and akin to cleaning the lenses through which we view our economy, allowing us to see a clearer, more accurate picture of its structure, size, and potential.
“As economies evolve, new industries emerge, technology transforms markets, and the contributions of different sectors shift.
Without updated economic measurements, we risk underestimating our true economic capacity.” He noted the role of NESG in economic development.
“The Nigerian Economic Summit Group, through one of its four strategic roles in the country, has continually watchdogged the economy and leveraged empirical analysis, evidence, and rigorous research to
With NBS getting ready to release a rebased economy any moment, Nigeria’s economy is as diverse, huge and big enough for everyone to get his slice, given the existence of a conducive environment
drive evidence-based policy advocacy. Today’s workshop, in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is yet another step in that direction to enhance the understanding and utility of key economic data”, he added.
He recalled with nostalgia when the last rebasing exercise happened in 2014. “In 2014, our GDP leapt by nearly 90%, elevating Nigeria’s economy to $510 billion and positioning it ahead of South Africa as the largest economy in Africa.
This was not a fabrication; it reflected reality. Sectors like telecommunications, real estate, and the creative industries— once invisible in old metrics—came into full view.
“We must acknowledge the immense value of rebasing our economy to identify new growth engines, which are indispensable for crafting evidence-based policies to strengthen sectoral performance and enhance growth. Both India and China offer valuable lessons.
India’s 2015 GDP rebasing highlighted IT and fintech as key growth drivers, while China’s periodic methodological updates ensure their data reflects structural shifts in technology, ecommerce, and advanced manufacturing.
These practices underscore the need for Nigeria to remain relevant and competitive globally,” he added.
Benefits
“But why does this matter? First, accurate data enhances credibility. Our debt-to-GDP ratio, a critical indicator of fiscal health, dropped from 19 per cent to 11 per cent after the 2014 rebasing.
This improved Nigeria’s creditworthiness, making it a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.
“Investors are drawn to transparency and growth potential, and rebasing sends a clear message: we understand our economy, and we are open for business. Second, rebasing sharpens policymaking.
It provides a detailed map of our economic terrain, enabling governments to identify high-growth sectors for scaling and low-growth sectors that require targeted interventions to drive impactful and balanced development.
“For example, after Ghana’s 2010 rebasing—which resulted in a 60 per cent GDP increase—its policymakers could better plan for infrastructure and social investments, fueling sustained growth,” he said.
Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, gave reasons for the exercise.
He said the rebasing exercise was designed to ensure that the nation’s economic indicators accurately reflected the current structure, incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating the consumption baskets, and refining the data collection methods.
“Rebasing is a vital exercise that ensures our economic indicators are current and accurate reflections of the economic realities on the ground.
As economies evolve, new industries emerge, and consumption patterns shift, it becomes imperative to update our statistical measures to capture these changes.
Rebasing our GDP and CPI allows us to align with these transformations, providing a more precise and relevant picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape,” he explained.
The NBS boss contended that the process was foundational to informed policymaking, strategic planning, and effective governance; hence, it was one exercise that the Bureau is conducting with significant importance and professionalism.
He said if Nigeria is to make the desired progress and development, it was imperative that NBS, as the official producer of data, played its role adequately in providing timely, accurate, and reliable statistics to inform all users, both in the public and private sectors, to enable them to design, plan, and implement policies and programs that will lead to the attainment of national objectives.
He said the Bureau’s mindset in undertaking both critical assignments was to ensure that the processes are open, collaborative, and rigorous, making sure that, as much as possible, no stone is left unturned in its bid to measure and report accurately the size of the economy and the level of price changes.
While stating that the workshop was a platform for knowledge sharing, discussion, and collaboration, Prince Adeniran assured the stakeholders that their inputs and suggestions would be taken on board and incorporated where necessary.
Gains
A rebased GDP/CPI is beneficial to the economy in many ways. Firstly, it offers an updated and accurate map of the economy. It allows the government to make better-informed decisions, target investments, and implement policies that promote sustainable and inclusive growth.
A rebased GDP will reinforce investors’ confidence in the economy. The exercise provides clearer and accurate state of the economy, thus giving an investor the right perspective to make an informed decision.
The exercise will enhance global comparability by aligning Nigeria’s economic indicators with international standards.
Last line
With NBS getting ready to release a rebased economy any moment, Nigeria’s economy is as diverse, huge and big enough for everyone to get his slice, given the existence of a conducive environment.
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