ADF STAFF
Turkey has made significant economic, military and diplomatic investments in Africa as part of its strategy in recent years to deepen ties across the continent.
When Ethiopia and Somalia agreed this year to have Turkey play the role of mediator in their feud over Red Sea access in Somaliland, experts said it signaled Ankara’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa. But with negotiations stalled and rising instability in the Horn, it is unclear whether Turkey will be able to negotiate a resolution to the conflict.
Ali Bilgic, professor of International Relations and Middle East Politics at Loughborough University in England, called it a “diplomatic balancing act motivated by Ankara’s strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Horn of Africa.”
“Turkey has made notable strides in realizing its ambition to become a key economic, humanitarian and military power in sub-Saharan Africa,” he told the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies. “Establishing military bases, such as the one in Somalia, and training local forces have solidified its geopolitical presence.”
In need of its own access to the Red Sea, landlocked Ethiopia in January 2024 signed a memorandum of understanding to lease land for a port and naval base from the breakaway region of Somaliland in exchange for possible recognition of its independence. Though the deal has yet to be completed, Somalia accuses Ethiopia of violating its territorial sovereignty.
In May, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to mediate. Turkey hosted Ethiopian and Somali officials for two rounds of talks in July and August but was not able to achieve a resolution. A third meeting, initially scheduled for September 17, was cancelled without explanation.
“The balancing act is becoming difficult as Ethiopia has expressed concerns about Turkey’s deepening relationship with Somalia, particularly its military support,” security expert Peter Fabricius wrote for the institute on November 1.
Ankara has invested heavily in Somalia agriculturally, militarily and diplomatically over the last decade, building the airport in Mogadishu, a military training center and a hospital. In the aftermath of Ethiopia’s Red Sea port deal with Somaliland, Somalia signed a new coastal and maritime defense pact with Turkey in February.
“Turkey sees its relations with Somalia as an example of how to engage in diplomatic relations with the countries of the continent,” Aykhan Ajalov wrote in an October 29 analysis for the Topchubashov Center, an Azerbaijan-based security think tank.
The regional dispute became more complicated when Egypt began sending Soldiers and weapons to Somalia and forged multiple security alliances meant to push back against Ethiopia’s regional presence. Egypt has its own dispute regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Ethiopia’s control over the flow of the Nile River. But Egypt also is jockeying with Ethiopia and Turkey for influence in the Horn.
“Turkey needs Somalia and Ethiopia to play well together, so this is vitally important for Turkish regional ambitions,” geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs told Voice of America in an October 15 video.
The post Turkey Hopes Peacemaking Can Increase Influence in Horn of Africa appeared first on Africa Defense Forum.
