Hakeem Gbadamosi writes that much of the discourse on the impending November 16 gubernatorial election in Ondo State centres on two leading candidates, with heightened lobbying by the contenders.
AFTERMATH the September 21 governorship election in Edo State, the political atmosphere in Ondo State is gradually gathering momentum. The main political parties have stepped up their campaign activities for the epic contest. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state have gone in full blast with their campaigns in the last three days.
A total of 17 parties are contesting in the governorship race, but only two are considered by many observers as major contenders. So, it appears to be a straight fight between the APC and the PDP. The list of the parties fielding candidates includes: the Labour Party, Social Democratic Party (SDP) New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), among others.
It is no surprise that the APC and PDP have been trading words over the outcome of a similar election held in Edo State, which the ruling PDP tagged controversial and alleged that the outcome was skewed in favour of APC and its candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo. The claims and counter-claims by the gladiators have led to many analysts and observers riveting their attention to the forthcoming election in Ondo. Stakeholders in all the political parties have also expressed variegated views on the election, level of preparations and the opportunity it offers all interests. But put more succinctly, the election is expected to test the ability and capacity of the INEC to conduct a free, fair, and credible poll against the backdrop of allegations trailing the Edo poll.
While the APC is still basking in the euphoria of its victory in Edo and looking forward for a repeat in Ondo, the PDP is confident about creating an electoral upset. Its leaders claim that they are working tirelessly and blocking all possible loopholes capable of frustrating PDP efforts to win back the state on November 16, at least, to prove that Ondo is not Edo that could be taken for granted. Therefore, the titanic battle is between the candidate of the APC, who doubles as incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, and Agboola Ajayi of the PDP.
Suffice to add that certain factors could define the direction the pendulum at the poll in the Sunshine State, with some of the forces slightly different from what transpired at the Edo election. A major difference is the absence of godfatherism in the coming election in Ondo. is particular election. Unlike Edo, where the two main candidates enjoyed the backing of political figures, Aiyedatiwa of the APC and Ajayi (PDP) emerged as candidates in the race to Alagbaka House on their personal pedigrees and track records.
In Edo, Asue Ighodalo was the anointed candidate of Governor Godwin Obaseki, while Okpebholo was backed by APC power brokers in Edo and at the federa level, with senator representing Edo North, Adams Oshiomole as the face of the centre.
Another interesting thing about the Ondo election is that the contenders from the PDP and APC are former deputy governors to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Ajayi contested with Akeredolu in 2016 before the gulf between them, while Aiyedatiwa replaced Ajayi as Akeredolu’s running mate during the 2020 governorship election. So, the candidates are not neophytes when it comes to governance. According to their allies and supporters, the candidates have been tested and tested in terms of governance and administration, unlike the situation in Edo, where neither Ighodalo nor Okpebholo was exposed to the art of governance before their emergence as the candidates of their respective parties.
Other observers in the state foresee a tight race in Ondo because in Edo, it was believed that a sizeable number of the electorate cast a protest vote against the PDP to show their aversion against Obaseki and not PDP. The pundits claim the electorate in Ondo could visit the perceived lapses in the economic reforms of the APC-led administration of President Bola Tinubu on the ruling party at the poll. The public disenchantment, they noted, could confer an advantage on the PDP in its quest to return to the government house in Akure through the election.
However, the Ondo APC argued that Aiyedatiwa has performed well within the last 10 months as governor to deserve the mandate of the eligible residents of the state. For instance, the Senior Special Assistant to the governor on community engagement, Honourable Femi Denis Fadairo, said the unprecedented achievements of Aiyedatiwa in the last 10 months will earn him re-election. Fadairo asserted: “The achievements of Aiyedatiwa will speak for him in the November 16 governorship election. The people of the state have seen Governor Aiyedatiwa’s performance; he has delivered the dividend of democracy within the last 10 months he took over. There’s no sector of the state economy that the governor has not touched.”
Apart from this, the dust raised on the April 20 governorship primary of APC in the state is yet to settle as some aspirants, who alleged irregularities, have distanced themselves from the party’s campaign. Aiyedatiwa’s emergence as the APC’s nominee sparked discontent in the party with some contenders questioning the credibility of the process. They claimed that party members in some areas were disenfranchised during the primary.
Despite this, Aiyedatiwa seems to be on a sound pedestal to make hay at the poll. This is because of the number of pragmatic measures and steps he has taken lately. A good instance is his recent appointment of about 361 appointees. Coupled with this is his promise to pay N73,000 minimum to workers in the state, which even the opposition parties perceive as strategies designed to further worm himself into the heart of the people. The daily endorsements of Aiyedatiwa by the movers and shakers of Ondo politics is also seen as a testament of his acceptability and assurance towards winning the election. Loyalists of some influential politicians from the state have teamed up with the APC bolster the Aiyedatiwa project. But some cynics claim a few of them could be moles and elements who are capable of sabotaging Aiyedatiwa’s re-election bid. According to those skeptics, those foot soldiers could be working for the PDP. Meanwhile, Ajayi is described as a grassroots politician, who rose through the rank, to become the deputy governor of the state. He is said to be working assiduously to ensure victory for PDP. He has served as a councillor, local government chairman, and member, House of Representatives before becoming the deputy governor.
One factor in the Ondo election is the unwritten agreement that power should be zoned to the southern senatorial district. The candidates of the other parties participating in the election also hail from the district. Aiyedatiwa is about completing his principal’s term, Akeredolu, and on that score, some pundits claim that unless there is amendment to the 1999 Constitution, Aiyedatiwa could be encumbered from seeking another term of four years in case he wins the November 16 poll. This means that if Aiyedatiwa wins this governorship election, his ambition may limit the senatorial district to a single term. The arrangement pitted many southern political stalwarts against his candidature, and there are speculations about an alignment with Ajayi, the PDP nominee, who enjoyed the support of the south in the 2020 gubernatorial election.
The PDP candidate stands to benefit from this arrangement as political leaders and followers from the district believe that the area will be shortchanged if Aiyedatiwa emerges as governor and will spend four years, whereas other zones have completed two terms of eight years. Certain people from the South, where Ajayi hails from, have reportedly bought into the project.
Above all, Aiyedatiwa is a step ahead of any other contestants, considering the power of incumbency and federal might. It might look dicey on the surface but events in the last few weeks in the state showed that Aiyedatiwa might win considering the arrays of leading politicians across the state that have pitched tents with him.
Battle ground
The South looks to be the main battleground for the two candidates to test their popularity among their people. The APC is believed to have a firm grip of the northern district, while the PDP is weak there as many of its members have defected to APC.
However, the results from other districts will depend on the popularity of the foot soldiers of the two candidates in the areas. In the North, political juggernauts expected to swing votes for Aiyedatiwa in the zone include former deputy governors; Alhaji Ali Olanusi and Lasisi Oluboyo, as well as Senator Ajayi Boroffice, former Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Honourable Victor Olabimtan, National Assembly members, son of the late Governor Adebayo Adefarati, Gboyega Adefarati; Honourable Timilehin Adelegbe, Ife Ehindero, and the Minister of Interior, Hon Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, among other bigwigs. Findings showed that the Central district is another battleground for the PDP and APC candidates. These include such constituencies as Akure South, Akure North, Ifedore, Idanre, Ondo West and Ondo East. The council areas have many influencers whose political sagacity and strength have never been in doubts. Ajayi is expected to soar relatively in some of the council areas, especially in Idanre where his running mate, Festus Akingbaso hails from. But the capacity for mobilisation of the electorate by the chairman of the APC in the state remains in contention as he hails from the area. The candidates could share the votes in Central, especially Akure, the state capital, due to subdued anger by some gladiators against the authorities.
The defection of some PDP bigwigs to the APC is a setback for the former. Some leaders of the party are sitting on the fence. A former governor of the state, Dr Olusegun Mimiko has remained in the party. He has maintained a dignified silence over the turn of events in the PDP but his foot soldiers have defected to APC. Mum is the word in the camp of the PDP candidate in the last election, Eyitayo Jegede (SAN). In the views of some observers, the continued absence and silence of these seasoned gladiators on the party activities make the outcome of the election unpredictable. The restoring unity in PDP also constitutes another key factor if the leaders are serious about the party taking control of the state from the APC that is desperate to harvest all the six states in the South West.
However, a win for Ajayi will be a plus for PDP in its quest to return to power at the centre in 2027. In the event of Aiyedatiwa’s victory, the APC will be confident of its hold on the South-West, to secure the region ahead of the 2027 second term aspiration of President Bola Tinubu while it the battle for Osun governorship in 2026 will be the father of contests between the PDP and the APC in the region. A win for PDP will restore the party’s confidence to make an inroad into South West again, having lost the grip after former President Goodluck Jonathan exited from power in 2015.
In all, the Ondo election will serve as a litmus test for the ruling APC’s influence and popularity, as well as an opportunity for INEC to demonstrate its ability to conduct elections in a highly charged environment, following the admixture of feelings that trailed the September 21 Edo election.
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