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Miami (4-0) is currently ranked 7th nationally after torching their non-conference schedule by an average score of 51-11. They dog-walked Florida 41-17 in the opener and just blew-out a USF team that gave Alabama all they could handle by a score of 50-15. Heading into ACC play the Canes’s lethal offense led by OC Shannon Dawson and Heisman candidate QB Jaxson Dart ranks 5th in success rate, 1st in plays of 20+ yards and 1st in EPA/play. Defensively they’ve been outstanding in both phases, ranking 6th in EPA/dropback and number one in FBS with an absurd 26.5% havoc rate. The one weakness in Miami’s otherwise superb defensive unit is their propensity to allow big plays, ranking 97th in IsoPPP and 87th in marginal explosiveness.
Trendy preseason ACC sleeper Virginia Tech (2-2) stumbled out of the blocks in a Week 1 upset loss to Diego Pavia-led Vanderbilt before taking out a pair of humdrum Sun Belt programs. They were favorites at home against a rugged Rutgers team and proceeded to lose 23-26 with a 14% postgame win expectancy. The Hokies’ offensive line is allowing an 8% sack rate (116th) and a 33% pressure rate (105th), which is making it difficult for QB Kyron Drones to improve upon VT’s ghastly 121st rated 33% passing success rate. On defense, they’re getting gashed on the ground, ranking 130th in yards per successful rush and 118th in rush yards allowed before contact.
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· Date: Friday, September 27th, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Location: Hard Rock Stadium
· City: Miami, Florida
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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The latest odds as of Thursday evening:
· Moneyline: Virginia Tech Hokies (+600), Miami Hurricanes (-900)
· Spread: Hurricanes -17.5
· Total: 54.5
*odds courtesy of
You could have bet this game in the preseason lookahead market at Miami -7.5. This week it reopened in the -16 range and has already steamed up to -19.5 at time of publishing. Meanwhile the total has dropped from 56.5 points down to 54.5 with expectation that Miami shuts down the Hokies offense.
Be sure to check out for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Eric Froton (@CFFroton) is riding with the Canes this weekend:
“There is no rest for the weary, and with Virginia Tech coming off a tough home loss in Blacksburg, VA to Rutgers, the last thing they want to see is Miami’s offensive juggernaut bearing down on them in the Florida heat. I’m laying the -19.5 points and betting on the Hurricanes to blow the doors off a limping Hokies team.”
as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
· Miami: QB Cam Ward entered the FBS scene when he followed HC Eric Morris from Incarnate Word to Washington State. After earning a middling 60th% PFF passing grade in 2022, Ward hit his stride last year by completing 67% of his throws for 3,723 passing yards, a 25-to-7 ratio and a much improved 80th% passing grade. Though he played well last season at Wazzu, Ward has hit another level this season completing 72.4% of his throws for 1,438 passing yards and a sparkling 14-to-2 ratio to go with a 93rd% pass grade that ranks 2nd nationally behind only Mississippi QB Jaxson Dart. Miami’s field general has earned a place on the short list of early season Heisman contenders.
· Virginia Tech: QB Kyron Drones is a Baylor product who hit 58% of his passes for 7.3 YPA and a 17-3 ratio, but he was far more effective as a runner, as is evidenced by the disparity between his 81.2 run grade and 65.0 passing grade last year. His dual-threat profile and Virginia Tech’s experienced offense in Year 3 of HC Brent Pry’s tenure had VT on the ACC dark horse radar. However, we have yet to see the projected growth in Drones’ passing prowess, with his 60% completion rate, 24% pressure-to-sack rate and 4-to-3 ratio contributing mightily to VT’s passing game ranking 100th in EPA/dropback.
· Last year Miami WR Xavier Restrepo earned the 4th-highest PFF receiving grade among returning P4 wideouts. He has proven to be the unquestioned WR1 once again, averaging 2.82 yards per route while leading the nation with a 157.9 NFL passer rating when targeted for Miami’s sixth-ranked offense.
· Miami LB Francisco Maiugoa leads the team with 16 tackles (12 solo) and 9.0 Havoc plays, while DE Tyler Baron is pacing the Canes’ 9th ranked scoring defense with 7.0 TFL and 4.5 sacks in just three games.
· Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten has been a bright spot for a listless VT offense, rushing for 384 yards on 5.7 YPC and seven touchdowns with a strong 4.5 YAC (9th in P4) and 24 broken tackles (10th). Keep in mind that Tuten is doing this behind an offensive line that ranks 82nd in yards before contact (1.52).
· Dating back to last season, Virginia Tech is 0-5 in games decided by one score, joining Kennesaw State, Kent State and South Alabama as the only FBS programs to have earned that distinction. Three of VT’s four games this season have gone Over their projected game total.
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