Here are the playoff scenarios for the Mets during the final games of the regular season, with the postseason set to begin next week…
Mets clinch a Wild Card spot if…
The Mets (87-70) are 1.0 game up on the Braves (86-71) for the third Wild Card spot and are tied with the Diamondbacks (88-71) for the second Wild Card spot.
However, because the Mets won the season series over the D-backs, they own the tiebreaker and will finish ahead of them if the two teams end the season tied.
Heading into this week’s three-game series in Atlanta, the math for the Mets was simple — win two games against the Braves and they clinch a Wild Card spot. But because the final two games of the series were postponed due to weather (to be made up on Monday as part of a doubleheader) New York now heads to Milwaukee for their three-game series this weekend with business against the Braves unresolved.
But the Mets still control their own fate.
If they go at least 4-1 over their final five games, they’re in. But they can also get in by going 2-3 — as long as those two wins come against the Braves.
Here’s where it gets complicated…
In a world where the Mets clinch a playoff spot before the games with the Braves are set to be played on Monday, and those games are only needed for seeding, it’s highly unlikely they will be played.
And in order to clinch before then, the Mets would have to play well against the Brewers from Friday through Sunday, while the Braves and/or D-backs fare poorly in their series against the Royals and Padres.
Here’s one scenario:
If the Mets go 2-1 against the Brewers and the D-backs go 1-2 against the Padres, the Mets would be 89-71 and Arizona would be 89-73. That would clinch a playoff spot for the Mets because of the aforementioned tiebreaker.
Even in a scenario where the Mets are swept by the Brewers and the Braves sweep the Royals, the Mets would still be able to clinch a spot by sweeping Monday’s doubleheader, which — in this scenario — would put the Mets and Braves in a tie and give New York the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series.
Got all that?
The remaining schedules
The Mets and Braves both have five games left, while the Diamondbacks have just three games remaining.
Here’s how it plays out:
Mets: 3 at Brewers (Friday through Sunday), 2 at Braves* (Monday)
Braves: 3 vs. Royals (Friday through Sunday, 2 vs. Mets* (Monday)
D-backs: 3 vs. Padres (Friday through Sunday)
The Mets will be facing a Brewers team that has nothing left to play for. Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central and is locked into the No. 3 seed/Wild Card round for the playoffs. That’s because they cannot catch either the Phillies or Dodgers for one of the byes (they don’t have tie tiebreaker over either team). This does not mean the Brewers will simply roll over, but it’s hard to envision them pushing their starting pitchers or key relievers hard during their final series.
The Braves will be playing a Royals team that is still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Kansas City is tied with the Tigers for the second spot. They are 2.0 games up on the Twins for the third spot, and 2.5 up on the Mariners. The Twins hold the tiebreaker over the Royals, while the Royals and Mariners split their season series.
The D-backs will be facing a Padres team that — as of now — still has a chance to win the NL West over the Dodgers. They are 3.0 games back with four games to play, but can trim that deficit to 2.0 games if they defeat the Dodgers on Thursday. If the Padres lose to the Dodgers on Thursday, Los Angeles will clinch the division — giving the Padres nothing to play for in their final series against Arizona.
*The asterisk denotes what is mentioned earlier in the article. Monday’s Mets-Braves doubleheader will likely only be played if it’s needed to determine who reaches the playoffs.
If the playoff teams are already decided, and one or both games of the doubleheader is needed simply to determine seeding, it is highly unlikely to be played.