The next 25 years could prove decisive in determining whether the world’s 26 poorest countries progress to middle-income status, a new World Bank analysis shows.
According to the analysis, while these countries which are home to more than 40 per cent of people struggling on less than $2.15 a day, are the central focus of global efforts to end extreme poverty, their, “progress has stalled amid heightened conflict, frequent economic crises, and persistently feeble growth.”
It further stated that over the past 25 years, progress has mostly bypassed these countries.
Specifically, a statement on the analysis released by the bank on Thursday, said: “At the start of the 21st Century, the World Bank classified 63 countries as ‘low-income.’
Since then, 39—including India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh—have entered the ranks of middle-income countries, meaning their annual per capita incomes were above $1,145 by 2023.
The remainder, which were joined by South Sudan and the Syrian Arab Republic in the 2010s, have simply stagnated: on average, their inflation-adjusted GDP per capita has grown by less than 0.1 per cent annually over the past 15 years.
Barring a sustained improvement in growth rates, only six of today’s low-income countries are likely to achieve middle-income status by 2050, the analysis finds.”
Commenting on the analysis, Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, said: “The next 25 years are a critical window of opportunity for the poorest countries— and the rest of the world has a vital stake in helping them get out of poverty.
“Today’s poor countries face a tougher slog than their predecessors: over the past 15 years, they’ve seen practically no growth in per capita incomes.
Yet the record in East, Southeast, and South Asia shows that with a little help from abroad and better policies at home, even countries ravaged by war and instability can create the conditions for sustained economic progress.”
The statement said: “World Bank analysis is the first to systematically examine the progress of today’s cohort of low-income countries in the first 25 years of this century and their prospects for attaining middle-income status over the next 25 years.
It finds that today’s batch—22 of which are in sub-Saharan Africa—faces greater constraints than their predecessors.
“Seventeen of them are racked by conflict or fragility, with lethality rates 20 times the level in other developing economies.
Nearly all are especially vulnerable to climate change. Most are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. Half are landlocked, bordered by other poor countries, which limits their ability to boost growth through trade.
“Yet these countries also possess substantial natural advantages that could propel them to a higher standard of living.
With more than 60 percent and 50 per cent of the world’s known reserves of cobalt and graphite respectively, today’s low-income countries boast some of the largest known deposits of metals and minerals needed to generate and store renewable energy.
Their potential for solarenergy production is among the highest in the world. In addition, working-age populations—a potent force for economic growth—are rapidly expanding in these countries even as they shrink almost everywhere else.”
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